Alabaster, Alabama 7 Day Weather Forecast

Wx Forecast - Wx Discussion - Wx Aviation

230
FXUS64 KBMX 250631
AFDBMX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Birmingham AL
131 AM CDT Fri Apr 25 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Tonight through Friday)
Issued at 613 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025

Minimal changes needed to the short term forecast. PoPs were
decreased this evening and overnight to account for trends, as
only a few spotty showers/storms are ongoing and much of the
southern counties are devoid of low-level clouds.

12

Previous short-term discussion:
(This evening through Friday)
Issued at 139 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025

This afternoon.

A general southwest flow aloft prevails over the area this
afternoon with the most well-defined shortwave over South
Mississippi while some slightly drier air around 700 mb is
depicted moving east over our Southeast Counties early this
afternoon per RAP 13 km analysis data. The lower-levels remain
quite moist and mostly sunny skies across much of our southern
counties is resulting in surface temperatures reaching into the
lower 80s at this writing. A weak stationary front remains draped
to our northeast, extending from Northeast Arkansas east across
the Southern Ohio River Valley Region and southeast across the
Carolinas.

Quieter conditions have prevailed across much of the forecast
area so far early this afternoon with shower activity primarily
confined to portions of the north and far west, but showers and
some thunderstorms are forecast to develop across much of the area
over the next few hours with best chances north and west. Winds
will be out of the south to southeast at 4-8 mph. High
temperatures will range from the upper 70s north and northeast to
readings in the mid 80s generally along and south of the U.S.
Highway 80 corridor.

Tonight.

Longwave troughing to our west will move closer to the forecast
area overnight while the diffuse stationary front to our northeast
becomes even less defined with time. A few mid-level disturbances
will move over the western and northern counties overnight as a
warm and moist airmass remains in place across the area..

Look for mostly cloudy skies overnight with scattered (35-55%)
showers and isolated (20-40%) thunderstorms remaining in the
forecast overnight with the better potential generally along and
northwest of the Interstate 20 corridor. Winds will be from the
southeast at 2-4 mph. Low temperatures will range from around 60
northeast and far east to readings in the mid 60s southwest and
far west.

Friday.

The longwave trough will move over the area on Friday while a
surface cold front advances southeast across the Central Plains
and Midwest, extending from the Central Ohio River Valley
southwest into Arkansas by late in the afternoon.

Ahead of the cold front, expect shower and thunderstorm activity
to be most likely (55-75%) across the northwest half of the
forecast area while more isolated (25-45%) activity is forecast
across much of the central counties southeast to the Interstate 85
corridor where a few (15-25%) showers and storms will be
possible. Winds will be from the south to southwest at 5-10 mph.
High temperatures will range from the upper 70s northwest and in
the higher elevations east to readings in the upper 80s far
southeast.

05

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 103 PM CDT THU APR 24 2025

Models continue to hint at a drier solutions Saturday night into
Sunday as the boundary actually moves into the southern third of
the area. We will still see a shortwave slide through on Sunday,
but models are hinting that it will be further west. Will
continue to watch and see if the short range models tomorrow
continue with this trend or begin to move back to the east. This
front finally washes out by Monday and Tuesday, with the next
system approaching the area Wednesday. Strength of the ridge to
our east will determine how far south and east the front makes it
before stalling, so PoP chances will be in flux until the first of
the next week.

16

Previous long-term discussion:
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 305 AM CDT THU APR 24 2025

Beginning Friday night and into Saturday morning, the 500mb trough
axis will move east, with upper level winds becoming westerly to
northwesterly. At the same time, a surface front will dip
southward into the area as a 1030mb ridge over Lake Michigan sends
cooler and drier air toward the Deep South. Diurnally-driven
showers and storms are expected to develop as the front slowly
moves southward toward the I-85 corridor. These storms will be
very summer-like with potential for gusty winds and heavy
downpours with sufficient instability, moisture, and available
DCAPE through Saturday afternoon. Storms will decrease in coverage
quickly after sunset as the front becomes stalled across southern
Alabama. In the meantime, another shortwave impulse is expected to
move in from the northwest by Sunday within westerly flow at
500mb. Synoptic lift from the shortwave along with the lingering
stalled surface front will provide a focus for additional shower
and storm formation by Sunday afternoon. This by no means is a
classic northwest flow/MCS scenario, but something to watch to
determine if more widespread storms are able to form to our
northwest. If that occurs, overall rain chances may end up
increasing during the day on Sunday. Current forecast trends are
indicating that highest rain chances will exist across our
southwest counties, with lower chances to the northeast with drier
air still remaining present.

Overall ridging across the atmospheric profile is expected by
Monday and Tuesday as strong southerly flow at the surface
returns. We`ll warm back into the mid and upper 80s both days with
very low overall rain chances. Global guidance is advertising a
front trying to push in our direction by Wednesday and Thursday of
next week, but the ridge in place will likely prove too strong to
allow the front to settle far enough south. As of the current
forecast, scattered PoPs currently exist generally along and NW of
the I-59 corridor Wednesday afternoon. Those may start trending
downward over the next couple of days if the stronger ridge
solution in the guidance pans out.

56/GDG

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 120 AM CDT FRI APR 25 2025

All TAFs are VFR at this writing. Some MVFR cigs will be possible
toward sunrise near MGM and later in the morning at TCL. Some fog
is possible in the SRN part of the state, but should stay S of the
C AL TAF sites. Will monitor for any changes. SHRA/TSRA chances
will be best at TCL/BHM after 18z with upper shortwave activity.
Chances will be present to a lesser extent at EET/ASN/ANB after
21z. Isolated chances are present at MGM this afternoon, but are
too low to mention in TAFs at this time. Otherwise, look for S-SW
winds 5-9kts with mixing today.

Will continue with AMD NOT SKED at MGM due to comms issues.

08

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...

The late spring/early summer-like pattern will continue through
the remainder of the week with chances for showers and
thunderstorms mainly during the afternoon each day. RH values
drop into the 35 to 40 percent range in the southeastern portions
of Central Alabama at times, but remain above 40 percent
elsewhere. Winds will generally remain in the 5-10 MPH range with
occasional gusts to 15 MPH at times.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Gadsden     81  59  83  56 /  60  20  40   0
Anniston    82  61  82  59 /  40  20  20   0
Birmingham  81  63  83  61 /  60  20  30   0
Tuscaloosa  81  63  85  62 /  70  20  20  10
Calera      81  63  83  62 /  50  30  20  10
Auburn      83  63  83  63 /  20  20  20  10
Montgomery  86  63  87  64 /  20  20  20  10
Troy        87  62  87  63 /  20  10  20  10

&&

.BMX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...12/05
LONG TERM....16/56/GDG
AVIATION...08